Comprehensive Reflections to Aid in Governance(Part 42): Predictions

Comprehensive Reflections to Aid in Governance

By Sima Guang

Translated By Yiming Yang

Annals of Zhou Book 5 Scroll 5 (continued)

Kaifeng, Henan

The 56th year of King Nan(259 B.C.)

In October, Lord Wu’an deployed his army in three prongs: One branch, led by Wang He, occupied the cities of Wuan and Pilao; Another branch, led by Sima Geng, moved north to suppress any resistance in the city of Taiyuan and took control of the entire Shang’dang region. The kingdoms of Han and Wei were alarmed by these movements. They sent Su Dai to persuade Marquis Ying, saying, “Is Lord Wu’an planning to besiege Handan?” Marquis Ying confirmed this, and Su Dai continued, “Qin would indeed become the king of the realm if it annexed Zhao, and Lord Wu’an would hold significant power within Qin, and your highness would be under his thumb. Even if you don’t like to be the underling, you have to accept this reality. In the past, Qin‘s invasion of Han resulted in rebellions, with the inhabitants of Shang’dang fleeing to Zhao to escape Qin‘s rule. It’s evident that many people do not wish to live under Qin‘s authority. If Zhao were to fall to Qin, the population would scatter to neighboring kingdoms, further weakening Qin‘s control over the region. Therefore, it would be wiser to negotiate for these cities as part of a cease-fire agreement rather than allowing them to become mere trophies for Lord Wu’an.”

Marquis Ying conveyed this advice to the king of Qin, “Our troops are weary from the prolonged conflict. It would be prudent to negotiate a cease-fire agreement with the kingdoms of Han and Zhao to allow our soldiers the opportunity to rest and recover. As part of these negotiations, we should demand the transfer of certain towns from both kingdoms to secure our position and ensure a more stable peace.” The king of Qin agreed, and they demanded the city of Yuanyong from Han and six cities from Zhao in exchange for peace. In January, the war ended, and troops returned home. However, this decision led to a rift between Lord Wu’an and Marquis Ying.

The king of Zhao was on the verge of appointing Zhao Hao as the envoy to negotiate the terms of surrendering six counties to the kingdom of Qin. Yu Qing interjected, “Did the Qin troops withdraw due to exhaustion? Or perhaps, despite having sufficient forces to advance, did they cease their attacks out of love towards your majesty?” In response, the king speculated that Qin‘s retreat stemmed from exhaustion, as they were relentless in their quest for conquest. Yu Qing pointed out, “Qin pursued an objective but failed to achieve it due to exhaustion. By offering what they couldn’t secure through force, we inadvertently facilitate their aggression against us. When Qin inevitably attacks us next year, we’ll be left without aid or support from other kingdoms.” 

Amidst the indecision, lobbyist Lou Huan returned from Qin, prompting consultation from the king of Zhao on territorial concessions. Lou Huan argued, “Yu Qing perceived one aspect of the situation but overlooked another. The world rejoiced when Qin and Zhao clashed because it presented opportunities for exploitation: ‘We would take advantage of the loser when the strong bullies the weak.’ To counter this, Zhao should promptly cede land to Qin to confound other nations and appease Qin‘s ambitions. Failure to do so would invite further hostility from Qin and eventual division of Zhao among other states. How can we stand against Qin if Zhao itself no longer exists?”

Yu Qing heard the lobbying of Lou Huan and offered his counter proposal to the king of Zhao, “Mr. Lou’s proposal is detrimental as it would only heighten suspicion among other nations and fail to quell Qin‘s greed. Furthermore, it would expose our perceived cowardice. However, I didn’t mean to suggest refusing to cede land altogether when opposing yielding to Qin. Instead, consider this: Qin claims six cities from us. We could offer these cities to the king of Qi. Given the animosity between Qi and Qin, the king of Qi would likely accept our offer swiftly. By giving the cities to Qi at Qin‘s expense, we demonstrate resilience to the world. Taking this initiative may prompt Qin to negotiate a peace treaty before any reinforcements arrive at our borders. Achieving peace with Qin would earn respect from Han and Wei. In one stroke, we would win the affection of three kingdoms while compelling Qin to rethink its strategies.”  Impressed by the plan, the king of Zhao endorsed it and dispatched Yu Qing to negotiate with the king of Qi.

Before Yu Qing‘s return from Qi, Qin‘s envoy arrived in Zhao‘s capital. Lou Huan, sensing the shift in dynamics, hastily departed. In recognition of Yu Qing‘s strategic acumen, the king granted him a city as a fief.

The King of Wei consulted with his advisers upon news of Qin‘s assault on the kingdom of Zhao. While they believed Wei stood to gain from the conflict, Kong Bin, also known by the courtesy name Zishun, dissented: “Why do you say that?” Their reasoning was that should Qin triumph over Zhao, Wei might capitulate, and if Qin failed, Wei could exploit their exhaustion. Zishun countered, “That’s not accurate. Qin‘s military prowess has been unbroken since the time of Duke Xiao of Qin. Moreover, they’re now under the command of an exceptional leader. What exhaustion do you speak of?” One adviser argued, “If Qin conquers Zhao, it wouldn’t harm us. It’s advantageous when a neighbor is weakened.” Zishun retorted, “Qin is inherently rapacious. Once they conquer Zhao, they’ll seek further conquests. Eventually, Wei may find itself targeted by Qin‘s aggression. Let me recount a tale passed down by my ancestors: Swallows built their nest beneath a house’s eaves, feeling secure.  The mother fed the babies and the babies were chirping merrily. When a fire erupted, consuming the entire dwelling, the swallows remained oblivious until it was too late. Similarly, you fail to foresee the impending peril should Zhao fall. Are we not as blind as those swallows?”

Zishun, the sixth-generation grandson of Confucius, was highly regarded by the King of Wei, who had heard praises of him. Impressed, the king dispatched diplomats bearing gifts of gold and silk to invite Zishun to become his prime minister. Zishun‘s response was unequivocal: “If the king heeds my counsel and adopts my policies, I shall come even if sustained by mere vegetables and water. But if I am adorned with luxury and riches without genuine influence, I am but an ordinary man. Does the king require just another ordinary man?” Due to the diplomat’s persistence, Zishun relented and accompanied him.

Upon Zishun‘s arrival, the King of Wei personally greeted him and appointed him prime minister. Zishun wasted no time in overhauling the administration, replacing officials appointed through favoritism with those chosen based on merit and virtue. He instituted a system where achievements were duly rewarded, contrasting the previous practice of rewarding slackers.

However, as expected, those who lost positions or privileges due to Zishun‘s reforms began to slander him behind his back. Wen Zi, a confidant, informed Zishun of the malicious gossip. Zishun, undeterred, remarked, “Not engaging the public in strategic planning in early stages is a time-honored practice. It’s a well-established fact that many competent administrators throughout history faced criticism at the outset of their careers. For instance, it took three years of Zichan’s governance in the State of Zheng to silence detractors, while my ancestor Confucius, serving as prime minister in Lu, quelled disparagement within three months. I’ve only just begun leading this new administration. I don’t possess the same level of skill as those esteemed predecessors. So, why should I concern myself with the slanderous words aimed at vilifying me?”

“I wasn’t aware of the criticisms directed at Confucius.”  Wen Zi was curious.

“When Confucius assumed the role of prime minister, a song circulated among the people. Its lyrics went: ‘The elite in buckskin, not a crime if being put into jail; The elite wearing buckskin, put in prison no one complains.’ However, after just three months of his administration, the cultural sentiment shifted. A new song emerged: ‘Leather coats and black hats, delivered what we want; Black hats and leather coats, served us not himself.’”

“Today, I see that you are a saint, no different than your ancestor!” Wen Zi exclaimed

Zishun had served as prime minister of Wei for nine months without his strategic policies being implemented. Frustrated, he lamented, “My proposals lack persuasiveness, leading to a moral dilemma where I hold a high position and salary without contributing adequately.” Using illness as a pretext, he resigned from his official post. When someone suggested seeking opportunities in other kingdoms, Zishun responded, “Where could I go? The kingdom of Qin is annexing all kingdoms to the east of Xiao Mountains, an unjustifiable action. An honorable person wouldn’t align with Qin.” Retreating home, he maintained a low profile.

Xinyuan Gu urged Zishun to reconsider, “A virtuous individual should indeed strive to educate the populace and assist the government in their own community. You held the esteemed position of prime minister in Wei, yet I observed no significant administrative reforms during your tenure before your resignation. While I understand you may have faced challenges in implementing your desired changes, why did you opt to resign so swiftly?”  Zishun explained, “I quit because I couldn’t enact government reforms. Just as a terminally ill patient has no competent clinician to save him, our efforts to save the dying county would be futile. The kingdom of Qin‘s insatiable ambition threatens global peace, rendering our pursuit of humanity and decency futile. Reflecting on history, Yi Zhi and Lv Wang sought better administrations during the Xia and Shang dynasties’ declines, yet they couldn’t avert collapse. Today, kingdoms to the east of Xiao Mountains are weakened: the three descendants from Jin cede land to Qin, the two relics of Zhou become Qin‘s vassals, and Yan, Qi, and Chu submit to Qin. In my view, Qin will own the world within twenty years.”

The King of Qin sought vengeance against Wei Qi for mistreating Marquis Ying. Upon discovering Wei Qi‘s hiding place in Lord Pingyuan’s residence, he lured Lord Ping’yuan into Qin territory with persuasive words and captured him. Subsequently, a messenger was dispatched to inform the King of Zhao, “I will not release your brother from the Pass until I have Wei Qi‘s head.” With no refuge, Wei Qi fled to Yu Qing, who relinquished his prime ministerial seal of Zhao and fled with Wei Qi to the kingdom of Wei. They intended to seek refuge in the kingdom of Chu with the assistance of Lord Xinling, also known as Wuji, a prince of Wei. However, Lord Xinling, caught in a difficult position, delayed meeting them. Angered by the delay, Wei Qi took his own life. Meanwhile, the King of Zhao handed over Wei Qi‘s head to Qin, leading to the release of Lord Ping’yuan.

In September of the autumn, Wang Ling, holding the position of Wu-Daifu, launched a campaign against the kingdom of Zhao. Lord Wu’an fell ill and was unable to join the expedition.

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